Forecasting Rainfall and Floods: Advances and Way Forward

Better understanding of the physics of natural systems, the power of information technology and remote sensing tools, and the advances in statistics and simulation of complex nonlinear systems have revolutionized the way civil and environmental engineers approach traditional and new challenges. This paper describes new developments in the area of distributed rainfall and flood forecasting over large river basins. The potential benefits of this research could be significant. Put on a dreamer hat and imagine that the entire Ganga basin, from the hills and plains of Uttar Pradesh to the fertile lands of Bengal, is being simulated in real time from one centralized location. Rainfall is being forecast for the entire basin, and likelihood of floods are being predicted for every village. Real-time warning systems save lives and property. This paper briefly discusses new developments that could someday help us realize this vision.